Pure West Sports

It’s been nearly two weeks since I’ve been on here, sharing my NFL spiel with the world, but you can thank the Pro Bowl for that. I would have been on last week, but I’m not going to lower myself to writing at length about an all-star game. Honestly, I had completely forgotten it was on, based on how little coverage it got down here. I know the AFC won, and apparently Brandon Marshall looked like a passable NFL receiver – I wonder if the day ever comes when he can perform like that for the Dolphins and whilst facing some actual defence.

I’m sorry, but the Pro Bowl is the single most tedious and half-hearted all-star game on the American sports calendar, and that includes the MLS!! At least when the Pro Bowl was the week AFTER the Super Bowl it could be dismissed. Now all it achieves is depriving players selected from the Super Bowl teams from competing.

On the plus side, it did allow me to gloss over the fact that I bombed both of my conference championship game picks. In my defence, the Ravens probably should have beaten the Patriots – they were grinding New England with their run game late, but then tried to get cute in their play calling, leading to an interception and a turnover on downs. Despite all this they STILL nearly won the game (thanks Lee Evans!!). But I digress because….

It’s SUPER BOWL TIME (perhaps you’ve noticed)! The Giants and Patriots will again do battle in a replay of the big game four years ago, which whilst not being a high scoring affair, was a riveting contest filled with drama till the very last play.

In an early post, I wrote that many in the sports talk world had been making comparisons between this year’s Giants and the 2007 vintage that went all the way. I may have dismissed those comparisons when picking against the Giants in games against both the Packers and the 49ers, but I’ll bet, all comparisons aside, no one in their wildest dreams thought we’d be getting the identical Super Bowl matchup those 2007 Giants faced.

This is what it’s all been building up to – the 2012 NFL season, and my blogging for the last month – so without further delay, I present….

 

Super Bowl XLVI preview – Giants v Patriots

The game four years ago is what remains in the mind when looking at this week’s game, with comparisons aplenty. Many have said that the Giants and Eli Manning in particular, are a much better team than the one that beat the Patriots in early 2008. On offence, the likes of Super Bowl XLII hero’s David Tyree and Plaxico Burress have been replaced with deep threat speed merchants Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, giving New York a much more potent offense.

Those same people are also claiming that this incarnation of the New England Patriots is weaker than the one that came within one TD drive of a perfect season. Gone is the deep passing threat of Randy Moss, replaced by a return to a more traditional west-coast short passing attack using Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

But will the game play out the same? In XLII, the Giants defence stifled the high-scoring Pats, hanging with them just long enough for Manning to provide the winning heroics late in the fourth quarter. The Giants pass rush was also able to disrupt New England’s vaunted timing-synced passing game, sacking Brady a number of times and making him uncomfortable in the pocket all day.

Well, New York’s pass rush is still just as fearsome, with many believing it will be the key to winning the game. I’m taking a different approach, as I think the game will be won or lost on the back of the play of the New England offensive line.

Tom Brady is great, but he has looked less than great when he has no time in the pocket. Back in 2008, the Giants D line manhandled the Pats O line and turned the tide in their favour, making Brady look human in the process. This year, for Brady to be Brady the Great, his O line will need to keep Giant defenders out of his face. Football is a sport played 11 on 11, but will all of the focus QB’s and offensive specialists, as they have the ball, the job of linemen, particularly offensive lineman often gets pushed to the periphery. On a day when Tom Brady may join Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana as the only QB’s to win four Super Bowl titles, his offensive line will have a massive say in whether he achieves that milestone.

The Giants defence will also have to deal with New England’s group of pass catchers, particularly their Tight Ends. The mighty Gronk may not be as mighty in this game, due to his ankle injury, but Bill Belichick will know the extent of the injury and find a way to work him into the offence. If coverage is drawn to Gronk, Hernandez can still hurt you, and if the Giants take their eyes of Welker for one second, he will get open and burn them, just like he always does. Some of the players catching the passes for New England might have changed, but the bloke throwing the ball certainly hasn’t.

On the other side of the ball it appears to be a slightly more one sided. Whilst the Giants are not terribly prolific on offence, they have certainly put up some good scores this season. They will be matching up against a Patriots defence that, whilst ranking next to last during the regular season, has played well in their two playoff games. That comment has to be tempered by the fact that New England has hardly faced any top echelon offences in their two playoff wins. But, credit where it is due – they were able to do just enough, emphasis on the just, to shut down a very balanced Ravens defence in the AFC title game (however, if Lee Evans knew how to secure a perfectly thrown touchdown pass, we’re not having this conversation – instead preparing for a rematch of Super Bowl XXXV). The Giants would be wise to look at the last quarter of the AFC championship game to see how the Ravens began to drive on the Pats late. If the Giants want a matchup to exploit, they should pay close attention to whichever of their WR’s is being covered by Julian Edelman.

We all know New England can score points and chew up yardage, and with the Giants facing a less-than-intimidating Patriots defence, they too should score points. I see this as being a high-scoring affair, very different to the previous matchup. Offence will rule the day, with the winner will most likely being the team who has the ball last.

As I said earlier, a fourth win from five Super Bowl appearances for Tom Brady would vault him firmly into the conversation of the single greatest QB ever. A Giants win could have further impacts on the Hall of Fame, as it would give both Eli Manning and coach Tom Coughlin two wins each, and would probably serve as enough evidence to punch both their tickets to Canton.

Will New England have revenge on their minds? You bet – they probably did a bit too much ‘jaw-ing’ in the lead up to the last meeting, trying to patent the term ’19-0’ and the like. Well, this time around it is the Giants doing all the talking, saying they are inside Tom Brady’s head and that they are going to ‘bring the heat’. One thing I know is that you can never count Brady out, and if you piss him off, he’s going to come after you. I mean seriously, can you ever truly count him out?

Ok its pick time. The Giants are the more balanced team, they have the ferocious pass rush and whilst it has been a while since either team has been beaten, the Giants have the better resume of victories in the latter part of the season.

But they don’t have Tom Brady, and that’s why I’m picking the Patriots. Brady thrives on talk and on doubters, and New England will have revenge squarely in their sights. Everything, and I mean everything was pointing to a Patriots win four years ago, just like everything is pointing to a Giants win this time around, but I’ll take my chances. It will be a high scoring game (well, higher than last time) but it will still be close – I’m thinking something along the lines of 30-27.

My pick (just so there’s no confusion) – Patriots

This blog has so far been populated with nothing but NFL content, but this will soon change. In addition to following the NFL, I am a huge fan of the English Premier League, and with the EPL getting towards the business end of the season, there will be more and more content about the round ball variety of football. 

Confession time – I am a partially one-eyed, fully fledged Liverpool fan. So this bias doesn’t manifest itself in my blog posts about the Premier League in general, I will soon be adding a page to this site entitled ‘Kop This’, that will be reserved solely for my one-eyed rants about all things Liverpool.

As this page isn’t ready yet, I’ve posted the first edition of Kop This here. Enjoy…

Carroll for Tevez swap – does it make sense?

Recent media reports have speculated that the Premier League could be on the verge of a massive transfer swap deal involving Liverpool’s Andy Carroll and Manchester City’s Carlos Tevez. These two players are arguably the two biggest black sheep in the EPL right now. In one corner we have the player who was the subject of the 4^th largest transfer fee in the history of football who is in such a rut you wonder if he’d hit the ground if he fell off a horse. In the other, a player who has caused many a controversy since moving to English football six years ago, but has always balanced out those issues with a hatful of goals.

A straight swap of the players would see Carroll moving to Man City to serve as what I can only imagine is Edin Dzeko’s understudy, and Tevez joining Liverpool to complete a ‘little & little’ forward line with Luis Suarez. The story gathered pace mainly due to Carroll’s ineptitude and Liverpool’s apparent desire to be rid of him, but also because it was linked with comments City manager Roberto Mancini made about being an admirer of Carroll when he was at Newcastle. The story has since been denied by both clubs, but would the move make sense? I’m going to take a different path, one that could best be described as ‘same same, but different’ that could benefit all parties. It might seem a little crazy, but in my opinion, it actually makes so much sense for all parties it would be crazy not to do it.

Step 1. Shut Andy Carroll down for the rest of the season.

By this I mean Liverpool need to sit him down and let him know that he will not be part of first team football operations for the rest of the season, and this goes for training as well.

Look, something is clearly not right with Carroll, and whilst I will admit that he was probably never worth the 35 million quid Liverpool paid for him, he was surely not this useless while at Newcastle. One can only assume that something isn’t right with the lad, be it fitness or something deeper like having his confidence crumbling under the weight of expectations a $35 million transfer fee brings. By shutting him down and taking him away from the spotlight week in, week out, Liverpool will be able to sort out what is going on with him.

I would essentially put Carroll on a 12 month trial between now and the next January transfer window. I would firstly investigate thoroughly to see if he is being hampered by any injury issues, and possibly have him speak, discreetly, with a psychologist to make sure his head was right in the wake of the last 12 months. I would then hire him his own personal trainer to develop and implement a diet and exercise regime specifically tailored to his needs and goals. He would then abide by this regime, training with his trainer away from the first team, until the commencement of 2012-13 pre-season training. All of this would be in an effort have him fit and firing for the start of next season.

This plan would also have a hidden outcome – namely, how Carroll responds to this plan. Once he is back with the first team next season, he will have 5 months to perform, taking into account his training and lifestyle habits and how he is playing, before Liverpool make a decision on his future. If he responds well and takes the tutelage on board, Liverpool might have a top player on their hands after all. If he takes the demotion and treatment badly, and recedes, Liverpool will know that he is definitely not a player they should bother with, and they could look to offload him in the January transfer window.

Whilst this plan does have the potential to leave Liverpool a bit stretched in the striker department for the remainder of this season, it does bring me to step 2…

Step 2. Man City loan Carlos Tevez to Liverpool for the remainder of the season.

Firstly, Liverpool get a player who has scored goals everywhere he has played, and a player who one suspects could form frighteningly good partnerships with Liverpool’s other wily strikers, particularly Luis Suarez.

‘Why would Liverpool take on this great strop’ I hear you ask, and you are quite right in asking, because Tevez is a diva, plain and simple. He suffers from what I liken to a short attention span, because he seems to get bored with a team after a certain period of time. It happened at West Ham, at Man United and it’s now happening at Man City – he eventually gets tired of playing with his teammates, listening to his manager, and gets generally displeased with the club and the shirt he is being forced to wear. But prior to this, when his heart’s in it, my goodness can the man play! He has scored goals for every club he has played for, and if Liverpool wants to get back into the top 4, they will need goals.

The reasons Liverpool would be interested in this deal are obvious, but would City be willing to pull the trigger?

Tevez is a potential £30 million player whose value is dropping with every game he doesn’t play, and after every act of petulance he plays out in the press. He is a depreciating asset (this might not matter too much to the richest club in the world, but still) due to his unhappiness, and every club in the world know it. This is why he hasn’t been moved, because City can’t find a club willing to make the kind of offer they believe the player is worth. However, a successful loan move would put Tevez back in the shop window for a potential big money move in the summer.

A move for Tevez also has the potential to aid City in the title race, with literally no risk to City themselves. Whilst it is unlikely he would be so prolific as to propel Liverpool past City to the title, the Reds still have league games against Man United, Tottenham, Chelsea, Arsenal and Newcastle – the five teams that sit between City and Liverpool on the table. If Tevez hits the ground running, he could invariably score goals against, and thus take points off, City’s title rivals.

The move would represent zero risk for City. Worst case scenario, he shows up at Liverpool out of shape and unmotivated, flops and is worth basically what he’s worth now. However, the best case scenario is he shows up at Liverpool, is back to his old self and fires Liverpool into the top 4, triggering a mad scramble for his services.

A similar scenario played out involving these clubs 10 years ago. Nicolas Anelka was sulking his way through a season for PSG, when Liverpool acquired him for a six month loan deal in the wake of Robbie Fowler’s departure to Leeds. Whilst Anelka was hardly prolific during his loan spell at Anfield (5 goals in 22 games in all competitions), he was playing and helped Liverpool to finish second in the table – their highest EPL finish. That close-season he was the subject of intense transfer interest, with Man City ultimately ending up signing him for a then club record £13 million. The loan move worked out pretty well for PSG, with a bidding war for a player they didn’t want and who didn’t want to be there. Not a bad little bit of business.

I realise this arrangement leaves Liverpool holding all the preverbal cards, but does anyone out there honestly think Manchester City want Andy Carroll? City has infinite resources and cash, and a plentifully balanced and deep squad; a squad that is well on the way to winning the Premier League no less. Why in the world would they want a lumbering pile of a striker, who would suddenly be their problem to get him right?

Like I said earlier, this almost makes too much sense not to happen. With the transfer window set to close in 2 days, I guess we’ll find out sooner rather than later.

And then there were four… just not the four I picked! I’m nothing if not consistent – two weeks making official picks; two weeks with a 2-2 record. My pick of one top seed going down at home did come to fruition, except it was the Packers eventually getting trampled, not the 49ers.

 In other news, thanks to the Giants beating the Packers last week, my Super Bowl pick went the way of the dodo and the evening newspaper, consigned to the pages of history (well, this website’s archive at least). Hey, there’s a reason I don’t do this for a living. Guess I’m not giving up my day job just yet.

 But we move on.

 The Conference championship round now awaits the 49ers, Patriots, Ravens and Giants. Who will meet in the Super Bowl in Indianapolis? Will it be a replay of a naughties Super Bowl, either XXXV between the Ravens and Giants, or the classic of XLII between the Giants and Patriots? Will it be the ‘Harbaugh-Bowl’ between John’s Ravens and Jim’s 49ers? Or could Tom Brady and the Patriots face off against the team he grew up cheering for – the 49ers? Interesting storylines every one of them, as there always is around the Super Bowl, but only two of these teams will be bursting through the smoke, running out onto Lucas Oil field to fireworks and a rendition of ‘Rock you like a Hurricane’ (or the like) in two weeks’ time.

 

NFL Conference Championship Game preview

AFC title game – New England v Baltimore

It has been easy, this week, to look at how these two teams fared a week ago in the Divisional playoff round, and on the basis of that last performance, make assumptions about how they are going to fare this weekend. New England made light work of a Denver team that wasn’t even supposed to make it as far as they did, whilst Baltimore found it extremely difficult to eventually see off the Houston Texans. One thing that stood out in the Houston-Baltimore game was how difficult it was for the Ravens to move the ball on offence, with Joe Flacco looking quite jumpy when faced with the teeth of the Texans defence. Many pundits have pointed to these two games and said that, with the Patriots flying, they will also make light work of the Ravens, who appear to be in a bit of a funk.

Well, one game does not a season make. Just because the Patriots carved up a Denver team they were supposed to carve up, doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to do the same thing to the Ravens this week. And just because the Ravens struggled to move the ball against Houston, doesn’t necessarily mean that they will struggle to do so against New England.

The reasons I don’t think this game is as cut and dry are quite simple – New England won’t be facing a one dimensional offence as they did last week, and the Ravens won’t be facing as tough a defence.

The matchup that will get all the attention is obviously the Patriots offence against the Ravens defence. The Patriots ranked second in total offence during the regular season; the Ravens, third in total defence. These two units are what the teams are built on and around, and they usually carry each team as far as they will go. The Patriots might have scored five touchdowns in the first half against Denver last week, but I highly doubt that will happen in this game. Conversely, Tom Brady has looked mortal this season when teams have brought pressure and ‘hit him in the mouth’, to quote ESPN’s Mike Wilbon. These two units could decide the matchup, but I believe they have a better chance of cancelling one another out.

Which means the contest will be decided by how the Patriot’s defence stands up against the Raven’s offence. Again with the stats – Baltimore was 15^th in total offence in the regular season, with the Patriots coming in 31^st – second last – in total defence. Despite the Ravens failing to effectively move the ball on the Texans – struggling to move the ball against a talented and stout Texans defence is nothing to be ashamed of – the Patriots are not in the Texans class when it comes to defence. While the Raven offence might not be the most frightening in the NFL, I’m going to hazard a guess and say they can move the ball against the 31^st ranked Patriots.

Still, this is a championship game, for a trip to the Super Bowl, which can have an effect on players, making them super-human. If the Ravens are going to take advantage of the Patriots biggest weakness, they will need big games from Ray Rice and Joe Flacco. They will need to grasp opportunities that the Patriot defence presents them, and be as ruthless as the Patriots will be on offence. Show them no mercy (on offence), for you shall receive none.

Bottom line, I picked the Ravens to go to the Super Bowl at the start of the season (in my head at least – two weeks ago as far as this blog is concerned!). Granted I had them hosting the Steelers in this game – after the Steelers made light work of Denver, and pulled the upset against the Patriots, but still. This Ravens team has been there abouts since Joe Flacco became their QB, and I believe this is their time. I don’t particularly care that the game is in Foxboro, where New England are almost invincible. Ultimately, as great as Tom Brady is, football is a team sport, and one side of his team – the defence – simply isn’t good enough to get a team to the Super Bowl.

My pick – Ravens

 

NFC title game – San Francisco v New York

Not since the glory days of the 80’s, when the great Lawrence Taylor was trying to tear strips off the equally great Joe Montana,  have the 49ers and Giants been so relevant at the same time. Theirs is a rivalry that, for so many years, determined who would represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Recent instalments of this rivalry have been just as compelling, with the 49ers winning a thrilling playoff game 39-38 back in 2003.

But what to make of the 2011 vintage? Both teams are led by much maligned QBs; both teams run the ball well, and play stout defence; both are storied franchises in the history of Pro Football, looking to add another chapter to their legacy.

The Giants always seem to be a team that is one small step from total implosion. Being New York, where everything is ‘now, now, now’, coach Tom Coughlin always seems to be one bad result from being fired, despite having led the team to a recent Super Bowl title. Similarly, the critics never appear to be far from Eli Manning either, ready to crush him anytime it becomes apparent that he isn’t Joe Montana.

Speaking of Montana, it is primarily because of the 49ers great that playing QB for the storied franchise always has some level of expectation attached to it. It is because of these expectations that current QB Alex Smith has largely been considered a bust. Granted he has hardly played like a #1 overall pick prior to this season (and comparisons with Aaron Rodgers are inevitable), but he has put together a nice season in 2011, which was typified by his career-day against the Saints last week. Now that Smith and the 49ers are somewhat out from under the franchise’s substantial shadow, they can attempt to find their own place in history.

So what to expect when these two teams collide tomorrow? The QB matchup will certainly be interesting. Both are former #1 overall picks (Manning in ‘04; Smith in ‘05) who have always been somewhat maligned throughout their careers. Both played well last week, and Manning has been on fire for a month. Luckily, their teams are not built solely on them, like the Patriots are with Brady, so if one is having an off day, the team’s other weapons can take over.

As much as San Francisco pride themselves on being a defensive team, the Saints were able to do pretty much what they pleased on offence last week. The Giants offence is not nearly as dynamic as the Saints, but they still have weapons and will still score points. Just ask the Packers. The 49er’s secondary will need to be switched on all game, and limit big play opportunities if they are to stifle the Giants.

As for the Giants, they might want to start with covering Vernon Davis following his career day last week.  Their pass rush, which has been getting all of the plaudits of late, is amazing, and they certainly applied pressure to the Packers last week in the turnover department. A repeat dose will be required to beat the 49ers.  

This is a game with a hard-nosed football team coming up against another hard-nosed football team. Seriously, they’re so alike, it’s scary. Put simply, the game plan for both teams should be something along these lines – keep it simple, run the ball so as to control the clock, attack the QB on defence, and take advantage of your opponent’s mistakes. The team that executed this plan better will win the day.

Ultimately, I think the 49ers will win through to another Super Bowl. Everyone seems to have jumped on the Giant’s bandwagon and have San Francisco somewhat flying under the radar (can you fly under the radar in a conference championship game?). I’m guilty of it myself after picking the Saints to win last week. I won’t be making the same mistake again. The 49ers are a tough out, especially at home, and will prove a bridge too far for the Giants, who I think might have played their best game last week.

My Pick – 49ers

 So, for those who haven’t worked it out, yes I am picking the ‘Harbaugh-Bowl’, as much as I didn’t want to (it’s cheesy, and the story was already rammed down everyone’s throats during the Thanksgiving game). Plus, I can still get half of my original Super Bowl pick right!

 Now, let’s see if I can improve that 50-50 streak….

Two correct and two wrong from my first week at this blogging caper isn’t too bad an effort. I did agonise over the Cincinnati v Houston game more than any of the others, and ultimately I chose poorly. As for Denver beating the Steelers, I’d really like to see anyone out there who a) thought the Broncos had a chance to win that game, and b) actually had the balls to pick them.

Now, onto this week, which many describe as the best week in the NFL – better than kickoff weekend, or even the Super Bowl. The divisional playoff round throws the top two seeds into the fray in sudden death matchups against teams coming off wildcard weekend wins. These wildcard winners have usually had the stuffing pounded out of them, physically, the previous week while their opponents, the rested bye-week teams, have had days off and time to recuperate after a long season.

Due to this, home teams – the 1-2 conference seeds – often fare well in this week. Since the NFL went to the current playoff format in 1990, home teams in the divisional round have a record of 61-23, so the smart money is on the 49ers, Patriots, Ravens and Packers to take care of business. Or is it? Just something to keep in mind….

NFL Divisional week previews

49ers v Saints

Although I have not picked the Saints to make it to the Super Bowl, they showed last week that they will certainly be tough to stop in these playoffs. Their offensive display against the Lions last week was a thing of beauty, and although Detroit hung tough with them as long as they could, they couldn’t keep up in the end. Actually, that doesn’t do the Saints enough credit – they didn’t allow the Lions the chance to keep up with them. Even after giving away two early turnovers, the Saints dictated every aspect of the game on the way to a deserved victory.

Now onto this weekend, and a meeting with a very different beast in the 49ers. This game will be played in San Francisco, which poses some interesting questions for the Saints. New Orleans only lost three games this season, but all three came on the road, so can they win when not on their hallowed turf? Also, can they play outdoors when it counts? We’ll see. Add to this that the Saints franchise has never won a road playoff game in its entire history, even dating back to Archie Manning’s days, and you’ve got some question marks hanging over them.

 The matchup here that gets people’s attention is whether or not the 49ers defence can stop, or even slow down the Saints offence. I’ve already said enough about how ruthless and deadly the Saints offence is, but the matchup I think will decide this game is flip-side of this coin – can the 49ers offence win the battle against the Saints defence? Think back to the Super Bowl in 2007, Colts v Bears. Everyone thought the Colts offence and the Bears defence would essentially cancel each other out, and that the game would be decided by who could win the matchup between the Colts defence and the Bears offence, with the Colts coming out on top 29-17. It could be the same story in this game.

Now, the New Orleans defence is by no means stout or intimidating, but Alex Smith and Co. will need to display the same ruthless efficiency on offence they will see from the Saints if they want to win this game.  Red zone offence will be the key, and this is an area the Saints excel in. The 49ers, not so much, as evidenced by their kicker, David Akers, setting a new NFL record for Field goals in a season. If San Francisco want to win they need to score TD’s in the red zone, not settle for field goals, or things could get ugly.

The 49ers best chance for victory probably rests with Frank Gore and keeping Drew Brees and the Saints off the field by controlling the clock. The best defence for the Saints offence is to keep them on the bench.

All told, I think the Saints win this game – my divisional week anomaly, as one road team is bound to win this week (see more below). They might not shred the 49ers defence like they did the Lions, but they should score enough points to win.

My pick – Saints

Patriots v Broncos

Rejoice good people, for there has been a ‘Tebow Time’ sighting!! This one occurred mostly during the second quarter of last week’s game against Pittsburgh, but it had just enough left over for one play in overtime, which was just long enough to win Denver the game (and just long enough to make a mockery of the NFL’s new ‘both teams get a possession’ overtime rules). The question to come out of this most unlikely wins is: has this game shown anything to make us think that the Broncos charmed run isn’t going to come to a crashing halt in New England this week?

That’s right, the reward the NFL’s latest golden boy gets for beating the Steelers is a matchup with the NFL’s incumbent golden boy, Tom Brady. The Patriots have already halted one Broncos run this season when they beat them 41-23 in week 15; a game played in Denver no less. This game, unlike that one, or last week’s, will not be played in Denver, but in New England, where Brady is almost unbeatable at home.

The emphasis here is on ‘almost’ unbeatable. After all, the Patriots have been here as a #1 seed before, losing in the division round to the Jets at home last year. The other side of New York football also got in on the act when the Giants beat them at Gillette in week 9 this season.

Whilst this game may look like a walkover on paper (didn’t last week’s Broncos game look like a walkover on paper, too?), Tom Brady needs to win this game. He needs to win this game far more than Tim Tebow. As great as Brady is – a future first-ballot hall-of-famer and one of the all-time great QB’s – he hasn’t won a playoff game since beating the Chargers in the 2008 AFC title game. He needs to win this game to silence all those in the sports yak world who say he might be on the decline, regardless of how great he has been in the regular season.

All told, the Patriots should win this game. They aren’t dealing with injuries to key personnel like the Steelers were, and they will put up enough offence and points to knock the Broncos defence off the field. Then it will all come down to what Tebow can do, and does anyone really believe that Bill Belichick won’t have a game plan specifically designed to nullify Tebow? I also wouldn’t count on New England’s secondary being so generous as to make Tebow look like John Elway like the ‘Steelers’ did last week (Steelers is in quotes because I’m wondering if that was actually the real Pittsburgh Steelers).

However, if Denver wins (they won’t), we all might have to start taking Tebow very, very seriously.

My pick – Patriots

 

Ravens v Texans

Anyone who read my column last week will know I picked the Ravens to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, so I guess I’ll be taking them to win this game – sorry to spoil the surprise. But how will they win through?

Simple – Stop… Arian… Foster. Cincinnati could not and will be watching this game from the comfort of their offseason because of it. The Texans RB was a beast and produced the following statline, in his first ever playoff game no less: 24 rushes for 153 yards and 2 TDs, and 3 catches for 29 yards. All he did was gain an average of 6.7 yards every single time he touched the football! It is this kind of production that the Ravens will need to slow down if they are to win through, as I have predicted.

Fortunately, Baltimore has one of the best defensive units in the entire NFL, and if there is a team built to stop Foster, this is it. They will also be salivating at the prospect of going after Texans 3^rd string QB T.J. Yates, and will take great encouragement from his so-so performance last week. Ravens LB Ray Lewis is nearing the end of his hall-of-fame career, and this could be one of his last realistic chances to win another Super bowl. I don’t think he is going to let the upstart Texans stand in his way.

Foster v the Ravens defence will be a great matchup, but what about the other respective sides of the ball? The Ravens offence is no slouch, and has proven to be equally capable running the ball and throwing it this season. QB Joe Flacco will be itching for his first playoff start at home, after several years travelling the playoff wilderness as a wildcard, and RB Ray Rice is also in fine form after another superb season. But they will be facing a much improved Texans defence, who have co-ordinator Wade Phillips back calling the shots. Phillips, the best coaching hire in the NFL this season, has transformed the Texans into a feisty unit, and they should be able to stand toe to toe with Flacco and the Ravens.

Both teams are good on offence; both teams are good on defence – fabulous matchups both of them, but who will blink first? This game promises to be a cracker, as the teams are so evenly matched. It could come down to which one of the elite RB’s can win the battle against the top flight defence they will be facing. Or it could come down to the arms of Yates and Flacco. Either way, it should be fun to watch.

My pick – Ravens

 

Packers v Giants

The defending champ is here! This should be a damn good game.

Even since before the Packers were beaten by the Chiefs in week 15, they have been hearing whispers about their vulnerability, and how there are cracks starting to appear in their armour. Well, this week they are able to show all those people that’s all codswallop!

The Packers have been the best team in the NFL all year – just have a look at their record. Look also at the list of top teams they have dispatched this season – the Lions (twice), the Saints, the Falcons, and yes, the New York Giants.

As predicted by your columnist last week, the Giants did indeed beat Atlanta, with a gameplan primarily based on tactics reminiscent of their 2008 Super Bowl run – controlling the line of scrimmage, and attacking the QB with their pass rush. Well, this has led to further comparisons with that 2008 Super Bowl team….

In the last game of that 2007 season, the Giants played the Patriots, the team they would face in the Super Bowl a month later. Whilst they did lose that week 17 game, handing New England a 16-0 regular season record, they played the Patriots extremely close, and were able to take the lessons of that loss and apply them to reversing the result in the Super Bowl a month later.

Fast forward to week 13, 2011 – the Packers go to New York and win by three in a game that requires some late Aaron Rodgers heroics to pull out the victory. Many are looking at that game and saying that because the Giants played the Packers so close, they can repeat their trick from 2007/08 and knock the Packers off.

The key factor for the Giants is the Packer’s less than stingy defence. Despite the pass-rushing talents of Clay Matthews and Green Bay’s high interception total, they ranked dead stinking last in the NFL in total defence. If the Giants are able to control the clock with their running game, and grind the Packer defence they will keep Aaron Rodgers off the field and have a shot at pulling off the upset.

Many might be saying the Giants can win this game, but I am not one of them. This game will be played at Lambeau Field, where the Packers are 13-3 all-time in the playoffs (even if one of those losses was to THOSE Giants in 2008). Aaron Rodgers is the best player in the NFL, and the Packers have so many weapons on offence it’s frightening. Despite the Giants rediscovering their running game last week, they will have to keep up with the quick-strike Packers, and I just don’t see it happening. A lot will depend on Green Bay’s defence, but I expect this game to be a shootout, just like the meeting in week 13.

Regardless of the fact I have picked the Packers to go to the Super Bowl, I think they can win because they are hungry and ready for this game. They would be well aware of what the naysayers have been spouting about their chances of a repeat, and they will be fired up to silence a few critics.

My pick – Packers

You may have noticed that these picks give the NFL world what (I think)they want to see – a mouth-watering matchup between the Saints and Packers in the NFC title game. Oh that will be one to watch! More on that next week.

Divisional round anomaly – as I said in the opening, since the NFL went to the current playoff format in 1990 (21 seasons), home teams in the Divisional playoff round are 61-23. This throws up an interesting point, as while 61 home teams have won in those 21 years, 23 have obviously lost, which is at least one a year.

Based on previous years, a home team is going down this weekend. Sorry Niners fans (you know who you are!).

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