A new year, and a new blog, so I thought I would kick things off with a preview of this week’s first round of NFL playoffs. Moving forward, I’ll be doing season previews and predictions prior to each NFL season, but seeing as how I’m only new to this blogging thing, I figured now was as good a time as any to start.
NFL wildcard week previews
Texans v Bengals
It’s taken 10 years of Peyton-Manning-induced torture, but the Houston Texans will finally play in their first playoff game this week. Sure, it’s not the circumstances they would have wished for, but beggars can’t be choosers, and for the last 10 years the Texans have been beggars.
I have no doubt that when Texans brass and supporters imagined their first playoff game, they would have had Matt Schaub leading the team onto the field. Even some morbidly pessimistic fans would have thought of Matt Leinart leading them to their first playoff win. But it will in fact be third string rookie QB T.J. Yates playing with an injury, or Jake Delhomme, trying to light up the Bengals.
The Bengals themselves will also be going with a rookie at QB, but Andy Dalton has not only been the starter from day one, he has given long-suffering Bengals fans plenty of hope for the future. This game will tell us a lot about Dalton, who had been laid up with the flu this week. He played in some big games in college at TCU, but the question is how will he fair in a pressure situation as a professional? We could learn a lot about the next decade of Bengals football this weekend.
For me, the key matchup in this game is star Texans RB Arian Foster going against the Bengals stout rushing defence. If Foster can dominate the ground game, the Texans will be able to control the clock and the tempo of the game, which will alleviate pressure on Yates (or Delhomme). The Bengals must not let Arian Foster beat them – the mentality should be “if Yates/Delhomme beat us, more power to them, but we’re not going to be beaten by Foster.”
This is a tough one to call. On one hand, Houston is at home, and they have already beaten the Bengals this season in week 14. But on the other hand, Houston is missing its first two QBs as well as star defensive end Mario Williams. Plus, they backed into the playoffs quite meekly, losing their last three games. Even though the Bengals were 0-7 against teams that made the playoffs this year, I’m saying the injuries catch up with Houston, and Andy-Dalton-to-A.J.-Green (which incidentally could become the defining phrase of the next decade in the NFL) win the day. Somewhere, Carson Palmer must feel like a bit of a pillock!
My pick: Bengals
Saints v Lions
This might not be many people’s ‘game of the week’, and it may make some NFL purists run for the hills, but this is the game that I am most interested to watch this weekend. This game will be a dead set shoot out, where the playing of defence will be strictly optional.
The Saints offence is, quite simply, a joy to watch as they ruthlessly dissect an opponent’s defensive secondary, but this week, they will be going against a team that could give them a run for their money on offense. For all the offensive records the Saints set this season, just remember that the Lions averaged more than 30 points a game in 2011. If there was an offence built to run the Saints close, this could be it.
Both teams are stacked on the offensive side of the ball, with Drew Brees commanding a plethora of offensive weapons for New Orleans, and Matthew Stafford showing the NFL world exactly why he was the #1 overall pick a few years ago.
This game will also pair two of the NFL’s most dangerous offensive specialists. After being signed from San Diego in the offseason, all Darren Sproles has done is lead the NFL in yards from scrimmage. For the Lions, Calvin ‘Megatron’ Johnson has, this season, established himself as the dominant wide receiver in the NFL and will be a beast for the Saints absent secondary. Both players are a threat to score every time they touch the ball and either could easily have the final say in which team wins this game.
It is also worth mentioning that this game will be played in the Superdome, where the Saints haven’t lost this season, which included beating the Lions 31-17.
Let’s face facts – there won’t be a whole heap of defence played in this game. Yes the Lions have Ndamukong Suh, who is fast becoming the most dominant defensive player in the NFL, but he and the Lions defence couldn’t slow down Matt Flynn last week, and they’re not going to slow Brees down this week.
If you are a fan of power rushing and power defence, its best you find something else to do with your time whilst this game is on, because it won’t be for you. This game could end up as a carbon copy of the Lions Packers game last week – a back and forth offensive shootout, and just like that game, the Lions will invariably come up short. Their time might be soon, but it isn’t now.
My pick – Saints
Giants v Falcons
An intriguing matchup, this one. The Giants are playing at home, but the Falcons have the better record, so do you go with the team with the home field advantage, or the team that won more games during the regular season?
If the NFL playoffs were a fully seeded tournament which didn’t take into account division winners, the 9-7 Giants would be the #6 and final seed in the NFC, and would be travelling to play the Saints this weekend. Does this mean, by virtue of their slightly better record, the Falcons should be the favourites in this game?
I see this matchup coming down to two factors – QB play and the Giants pass rush.
Matt Ryan is proving to be a very good young quarterback, particularly when playing at home in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome. But he is 0-2 in the playoffs so far in his career, and this game will be played outdoors in New Jersey, where the weather could be anything from pleasant sunshine to a blizzard. Dome teams going outdoors in the playoffs often don’t usually fare well.
Giants QB Eli Manning is another that can play with a split personality. Good Eli was obviously on show early in the season, when he guided the team to a 6-2 start, which also included a win over the Patriots in New England. Bad Eli then took over the reins, with the team losing five of their next six.
Will he be the guy who beat the Patriots, and who guided the Giants to a 3-1 finish to close out the year, including two wins over the rival Cowboys? Or will he be the guy who lost twice to the Redskins? Similarly, will ‘home’ Matt Ryan or ‘road’ Matt Ryan show up?
The other key factor in this game is the Giants pass rush, which has seemed to get into a bit of a groove in the last few weeks. This Giants defence seems eerily similar to the one from 2007 that got ramped up late in the year and went all the way to the Super Bowl (I’m not for one second saying that the Giants are going to the Super Bowl, it’s just worth the comparison).
One final thought as a memo to the Falcons secondary – you might want to think about covering Victor Cruz. Cruz’s big play ability, the ferocity of their pass rush, and home field advantage should get the Giants over the line.
My Pick – Giants.
Broncos v Steelers
Arguably the most one-sided matchup on wildcard weekend, with anyone who’s ever watched a single down of NFL football sure that the Steelers will brush aside Tim Tebow and the Broncos with relative ease. But the matchup is worth a closer look, as there are no absolute certainties in sports.
Everyone knows the reasons why the Steelers will win this game: their record (equal second best in the AFC), their defence, their multiple Super Bowl winning QB, the fact that Denver has looked putrid for the last month.
But what about the reasons why they won’t win? After all, every NFL pundit, fan (myself included) and casual observer thought the Saints would make light work of the Seahawks in last season’s playoffs, and Seattle ended up pulling off one of the biggest upsets in NFL playoff history. This matchup has the same ‘David v Goliath’ look about it, and the Steelers would be wise to treat it with caution.
Firstly, the Steelers are banged up. They will be without star RB Rashard Mendenhall and starting Safety Ryan Clark, with Pro-bowl Centre Maurkice Pouncey highly unlikely to play. Throw in QB Ben Roethlisberger dealing with an ankle injury, and you’ve got a team that is hurting. Roethlisberger will go, as he always does, but the injury has clearly affected his play. If he isn’t able to be as mobile as he can be, the Denver pass rush could be in for a feeding frenzy.
Secondly, despite how Denver has backed into the playoffs, the Steelers haven’t been in great form either. Pittsburgh were made to look decidedly second-rate by the 49ers in week 15, and made extremely hard work of beating the Browns last week (even if they did thrash the hapless Rams in between). They had better show up from the start this weekend or else.
As for Denver, the signs for them to win this game don’t look good. There hasn’t been a ‘Tebow Time’ sighting in over a month, with turnovers and sloppy, timid play being his hallmarks rather than the customary heroics. Teams haven’t been giving him time in the pocket to make plays, and this will likely continue against the vaunted Steelers defence.
In the end, despite how obvious it might be, the positives for the Steelers far outweigh the negatives. They won four more games than Denver, and Tim Tebow hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record this season. The Steelers are a very good team, and should win through.
My pick: Steelers
My Super Bowl pick…
For the record, I think the Ravens and Packers win through to the Super Bowl. Yes, I realise that making this call a month out from the game is a bit lame, when it should have been made at the start of the season. But seeing as how this is the site’s first post, I’m sure you’ll understand. At least knowing the 12 teams that are in the playoffs has stopped me from making a completely stupid prediction like Chargers v Eagles! I guess we’ll see in the next few weeks just how stupid, or smart, picking the Ravens and Packers turns out!
Tune in next week for a preview of the Divisional Playoff round, and a recap of wildcard weekend.
