Two correct and two wrong from my first week at this blogging caper isn’t too bad an effort. I did agonise over the Cincinnati v Houston game more than any of the others, and ultimately I chose poorly. As for Denver beating the Steelers, I’d really like to see anyone out there who a) thought the Broncos had a chance to win that game, and b) actually had the balls to pick them.
Now, onto this week, which many describe as the best week in the NFL – better than kickoff weekend, or even the Super Bowl. The divisional playoff round throws the top two seeds into the fray in sudden death matchups against teams coming off wildcard weekend wins. These wildcard winners have usually had the stuffing pounded out of them, physically, the previous week while their opponents, the rested bye-week teams, have had days off and time to recuperate after a long season.
Due to this, home teams – the 1-2 conference seeds – often fare well in this week. Since the NFL went to the current playoff format in 1990, home teams in the divisional round have a record of 61-23, so the smart money is on the 49ers, Patriots, Ravens and Packers to take care of business. Or is it? Just something to keep in mind….
NFL Divisional week previews
49ers v Saints
Although I have not picked the Saints to make it to the Super Bowl, they showed last week that they will certainly be tough to stop in these playoffs. Their offensive display against the Lions last week was a thing of beauty, and although Detroit hung tough with them as long as they could, they couldn’t keep up in the end. Actually, that doesn’t do the Saints enough credit – they didn’t allow the Lions the chance to keep up with them. Even after giving away two early turnovers, the Saints dictated every aspect of the game on the way to a deserved victory.
Now onto this weekend, and a meeting with a very different beast in the 49ers. This game will be played in San Francisco, which poses some interesting questions for the Saints. New Orleans only lost three games this season, but all three came on the road, so can they win when not on their hallowed turf? Also, can they play outdoors when it counts? We’ll see. Add to this that the Saints franchise has never won a road playoff game in its entire history, even dating back to Archie Manning’s days, and you’ve got some question marks hanging over them.
The matchup here that gets people’s attention is whether or not the 49ers defence can stop, or even slow down the Saints offence. I’ve already said enough about how ruthless and deadly the Saints offence is, but the matchup I think will decide this game is flip-side of this coin – can the 49ers offence win the battle against the Saints defence? Think back to the Super Bowl in 2007, Colts v Bears. Everyone thought the Colts offence and the Bears defence would essentially cancel each other out, and that the game would be decided by who could win the matchup between the Colts defence and the Bears offence, with the Colts coming out on top 29-17. It could be the same story in this game.
Now, the New Orleans defence is by no means stout or intimidating, but Alex Smith and Co. will need to display the same ruthless efficiency on offence they will see from the Saints if they want to win this game. Red zone offence will be the key, and this is an area the Saints excel in. The 49ers, not so much, as evidenced by their kicker, David Akers, setting a new NFL record for Field goals in a season. If San Francisco want to win they need to score TD’s in the red zone, not settle for field goals, or things could get ugly.
The 49ers best chance for victory probably rests with Frank Gore and keeping Drew Brees and the Saints off the field by controlling the clock. The best defence for the Saints offence is to keep them on the bench.
All told, I think the Saints win this game – my divisional week anomaly, as one road team is bound to win this week (see more below). They might not shred the 49ers defence like they did the Lions, but they should score enough points to win.
My pick – Saints
Patriots v Broncos
Rejoice good people, for there has been a ‘Tebow Time’ sighting!! This one occurred mostly during the second quarter of last week’s game against Pittsburgh, but it had just enough left over for one play in overtime, which was just long enough to win Denver the game (and just long enough to make a mockery of the NFL’s new ‘both teams get a possession’ overtime rules). The question to come out of this most unlikely wins is: has this game shown anything to make us think that the Broncos charmed run isn’t going to come to a crashing halt in New England this week?
That’s right, the reward the NFL’s latest golden boy gets for beating the Steelers is a matchup with the NFL’s incumbent golden boy, Tom Brady. The Patriots have already halted one Broncos run this season when they beat them 41-23 in week 15; a game played in Denver no less. This game, unlike that one, or last week’s, will not be played in Denver, but in New England, where Brady is almost unbeatable at home.
The emphasis here is on ‘almost’ unbeatable. After all, the Patriots have been here as a #1 seed before, losing in the division round to the Jets at home last year. The other side of New York football also got in on the act when the Giants beat them at Gillette in week 9 this season.
Whilst this game may look like a walkover on paper (didn’t last week’s Broncos game look like a walkover on paper, too?), Tom Brady needs to win this game. He needs to win this game far more than Tim Tebow. As great as Brady is – a future first-ballot hall-of-famer and one of the all-time great QB’s – he hasn’t won a playoff game since beating the Chargers in the 2008 AFC title game. He needs to win this game to silence all those in the sports yak world who say he might be on the decline, regardless of how great he has been in the regular season.
All told, the Patriots should win this game. They aren’t dealing with injuries to key personnel like the Steelers were, and they will put up enough offence and points to knock the Broncos defence off the field. Then it will all come down to what Tebow can do, and does anyone really believe that Bill Belichick won’t have a game plan specifically designed to nullify Tebow? I also wouldn’t count on New England’s secondary being so generous as to make Tebow look like John Elway like the ‘Steelers’ did last week (Steelers is in quotes because I’m wondering if that was actually the real Pittsburgh Steelers).
However, if Denver wins (they won’t), we all might have to start taking Tebow very, very seriously.
My pick – Patriots
Ravens v Texans
Anyone who read my column last week will know I picked the Ravens to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, so I guess I’ll be taking them to win this game – sorry to spoil the surprise. But how will they win through?
Simple – Stop… Arian… Foster. Cincinnati could not and will be watching this game from the comfort of their offseason because of it. The Texans RB was a beast and produced the following statline, in his first ever playoff game no less: 24 rushes for 153 yards and 2 TDs, and 3 catches for 29 yards. All he did was gain an average of 6.7 yards every single time he touched the football! It is this kind of production that the Ravens will need to slow down if they are to win through, as I have predicted.
Fortunately, Baltimore has one of the best defensive units in the entire NFL, and if there is a team built to stop Foster, this is it. They will also be salivating at the prospect of going after Texans 3rd string QB T.J. Yates, and will take great encouragement from his so-so performance last week. Ravens LB Ray Lewis is nearing the end of his hall-of-fame career, and this could be one of his last realistic chances to win another Super bowl. I don’t think he is going to let the upstart Texans stand in his way.
Foster v the Ravens defence will be a great matchup, but what about the other respective sides of the ball? The Ravens offence is no slouch, and has proven to be equally capable running the ball and throwing it this season. QB Joe Flacco will be itching for his first playoff start at home, after several years travelling the playoff wilderness as a wildcard, and RB Ray Rice is also in fine form after another superb season. But they will be facing a much improved Texans defence, who have co-ordinator Wade Phillips back calling the shots. Phillips, the best coaching hire in the NFL this season, has transformed the Texans into a feisty unit, and they should be able to stand toe to toe with Flacco and the Ravens.
Both teams are good on offence; both teams are good on defence – fabulous matchups both of them, but who will blink first? This game promises to be a cracker, as the teams are so evenly matched. It could come down to which one of the elite RB’s can win the battle against the top flight defence they will be facing. Or it could come down to the arms of Yates and Flacco. Either way, it should be fun to watch.
My pick – Ravens
Packers v Giants
The defending champ is here! This should be a damn good game.
Even since before the Packers were beaten by the Chiefs in week 15, they have been hearing whispers about their vulnerability, and how there are cracks starting to appear in their armour. Well, this week they are able to show all those people that’s all codswallop!
The Packers have been the best team in the NFL all year – just have a look at their record. Look also at the list of top teams they have dispatched this season – the Lions (twice), the Saints, the Falcons, and yes, the New York Giants.
As predicted by your columnist last week, the Giants did indeed beat Atlanta, with a gameplan primarily based on tactics reminiscent of their 2008 Super Bowl run – controlling the line of scrimmage, and attacking the QB with their pass rush. Well, this has led to further comparisons with that 2008 Super Bowl team….
In the last game of that 2007 season, the Giants played the Patriots, the team they would face in the Super Bowl a month later. Whilst they did lose that week 17 game, handing New England a 16-0 regular season record, they played the Patriots extremely close, and were able to take the lessons of that loss and apply them to reversing the result in the Super Bowl a month later.
Fast forward to week 13, 2011 – the Packers go to New York and win by three in a game that requires some late Aaron Rodgers heroics to pull out the victory. Many are looking at that game and saying that because the Giants played the Packers so close, they can repeat their trick from 2007/08 and knock the Packers off.
The key factor for the Giants is the Packer’s less than stingy defence. Despite the pass-rushing talents of Clay Matthews and Green Bay’s high interception total, they ranked dead stinking last in the NFL in total defence. If the Giants are able to control the clock with their running game, and grind the Packer defence they will keep Aaron Rodgers off the field and have a shot at pulling off the upset.
Many might be saying the Giants can win this game, but I am not one of them. This game will be played at Lambeau Field, where the Packers are 13-3 all-time in the playoffs (even if one of those losses was to THOSE Giants in 2008). Aaron Rodgers is the best player in the NFL, and the Packers have so many weapons on offence it’s frightening. Despite the Giants rediscovering their running game last week, they will have to keep up with the quick-strike Packers, and I just don’t see it happening. A lot will depend on Green Bay’s defence, but I expect this game to be a shootout, just like the meeting in week 13.
Regardless of the fact I have picked the Packers to go to the Super Bowl, I think they can win because they are hungry and ready for this game. They would be well aware of what the naysayers have been spouting about their chances of a repeat, and they will be fired up to silence a few critics.
My pick – Packers
You may have noticed that these picks give the NFL world what (I think)they want to see – a mouth-watering matchup between the Saints and Packers in the NFC title game. Oh that will be one to watch! More on that next week.
Divisional round anomaly – as I said in the opening, since the NFL went to the current playoff format in 1990 (21 seasons), home teams in the Divisional playoff round are 61-23. This throws up an interesting point, as while 61 home teams have won in those 21 years, 23 have obviously lost, which is at least one a year.
Based on previous years, a home team is going down this weekend. Sorry Niners fans (you know who you are!).
