And then there were four… just not the four I picked! I’m nothing if not consistent – two weeks making official picks; two weeks with a 2-2 record. My pick of one top seed going down at home did come to fruition, except it was the Packers eventually getting trampled, not the 49ers.
In other news, thanks to the Giants beating the Packers last week, my Super Bowl pick went the way of the dodo and the evening newspaper, consigned to the pages of history (well, this website’s archive at least). Hey, there’s a reason I don’t do this for a living. Guess I’m not giving up my day job just yet.
But we move on.
The Conference championship round now awaits the 49ers, Patriots, Ravens and Giants. Who will meet in the Super Bowl in Indianapolis? Will it be a replay of a naughties Super Bowl, either XXXV between the Ravens and Giants, or the classic of XLII between the Giants and Patriots? Will it be the ‘Harbaugh-Bowl’ between John’s Ravens and Jim’s 49ers? Or could Tom Brady and the Patriots face off against the team he grew up cheering for – the 49ers? Interesting storylines every one of them, as there always is around the Super Bowl, but only two of these teams will be bursting through the smoke, running out onto Lucas Oil field to fireworks and a rendition of ‘Rock you like a Hurricane’ (or the like) in two weeks’ time.
NFL Conference Championship Game preview
AFC title game – New England v Baltimore
It has been easy, this week, to look at how these two teams fared a week ago in the Divisional playoff round, and on the basis of that last performance, make assumptions about how they are going to fare this weekend. New England made light work of a Denver team that wasn’t even supposed to make it as far as they did, whilst Baltimore found it extremely difficult to eventually see off the Houston Texans. One thing that stood out in the Houston-Baltimore game was how difficult it was for the Ravens to move the ball on offence, with Joe Flacco looking quite jumpy when faced with the teeth of the Texans defence. Many pundits have pointed to these two games and said that, with the Patriots flying, they will also make light work of the Ravens, who appear to be in a bit of a funk.
Well, one game does not a season make. Just because the Patriots carved up a Denver team they were supposed to carve up, doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to do the same thing to the Ravens this week. And just because the Ravens struggled to move the ball against Houston, doesn’t necessarily mean that they will struggle to do so against New England.
The reasons I don’t think this game is as cut and dry are quite simple – New England won’t be facing a one dimensional offence as they did last week, and the Ravens won’t be facing as tough a defence.
The matchup that will get all the attention is obviously the Patriots offence against the Ravens defence. The Patriots ranked second in total offence during the regular season; the Ravens, third in total defence. These two units are what the teams are built on and around, and they usually carry each team as far as they will go. The Patriots might have scored five touchdowns in the first half against Denver last week, but I highly doubt that will happen in this game. Conversely, Tom Brady has looked mortal this season when teams have brought pressure and ‘hit him in the mouth’, to quote ESPN’s Mike Wilbon. These two units could decide the matchup, but I believe they have a better chance of cancelling one another out.
Which means the contest will be decided by how the Patriot’s defence stands up against the Raven’s offence. Again with the stats – Baltimore was 15th in total offence in the regular season, with the Patriots coming in 31st – second last – in total defence. Despite the Ravens failing to effectively move the ball on the Texans – struggling to move the ball against a talented and stout Texans defence is nothing to be ashamed of – the Patriots are not in the Texans class when it comes to defence. While the Raven offence might not be the most frightening in the NFL, I’m going to hazard a guess and say they can move the ball against the 31st ranked Patriots.
Still, this is a championship game, for a trip to the Super Bowl, which can have an effect on players, making them super-human. If the Ravens are going to take advantage of the Patriots biggest weakness, they will need big games from Ray Rice and Joe Flacco. They will need to grasp opportunities that the Patriot defence presents them, and be as ruthless as the Patriots will be on offence. Show them no mercy (on offence), for you shall receive none.
Bottom line, I picked the Ravens to go to the Super Bowl at the start of the season (in my head at least – two weeks ago as far as this blog is concerned!). Granted I had them hosting the Steelers in this game – after the Steelers made light work of Denver, and pulled the upset against the Patriots, but still. This Ravens team has been there abouts since Joe Flacco became their QB, and I believe this is their time. I don’t particularly care that the game is in Foxboro, where New England are almost invincible. Ultimately, as great as Tom Brady is, football is a team sport, and one side of his team – the defence – simply isn’t good enough to get a team to the Super Bowl.
My pick – Ravens
NFC title game – San Francisco v New York
Not since the glory days of the 80’s, when the great Lawrence Taylor was trying to tear strips off the equally great Joe Montana, have the 49ers and Giants been so relevant at the same time. Theirs is a rivalry that, for so many years, determined who would represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Recent instalments of this rivalry have been just as compelling, with the 49ers winning a thrilling playoff game 39-38 back in 2003.
But what to make of the 2011 vintage? Both teams are led by much maligned QBs; both teams run the ball well, and play stout defence; both are storied franchises in the history of Pro Football, looking to add another chapter to their legacy.
The Giants always seem to be a team that is one small step from total implosion. Being New York, where everything is ‘now, now, now’, coach Tom Coughlin always seems to be one bad result from being fired, despite having led the team to a recent Super Bowl title. Similarly, the critics never appear to be far from Eli Manning either, ready to crush him anytime it becomes apparent that he isn’t Joe Montana.
Speaking of Montana, it is primarily because of the 49ers great that playing QB for the storied franchise always has some level of expectation attached to it. It is because of these expectations that current QB Alex Smith has largely been considered a bust. Granted he has hardly played like a #1 overall pick prior to this season (and comparisons with Aaron Rodgers are inevitable), but he has put together a nice season in 2011, which was typified by his career-day against the Saints last week. Now that Smith and the 49ers are somewhat out from under the franchise’s substantial shadow, they can attempt to find their own place in history.
So what to expect when these two teams collide tomorrow? The QB matchup will certainly be interesting. Both are former #1 overall picks (Manning in ‘04; Smith in ‘05) who have always been somewhat maligned throughout their careers. Both played well last week, and Manning has been on fire for a month. Luckily, their teams are not built solely on them, like the Patriots are with Brady, so if one is having an off day, the team’s other weapons can take over.
As much as San Francisco pride themselves on being a defensive team, the Saints were able to do pretty much what they pleased on offence last week. The Giants offence is not nearly as dynamic as the Saints, but they still have weapons and will still score points. Just ask the Packers. The 49er’s secondary will need to be switched on all game, and limit big play opportunities if they are to stifle the Giants.
As for the Giants, they might want to start with covering Vernon Davis following his career day last week. Their pass rush, which has been getting all of the plaudits of late, is amazing, and they certainly applied pressure to the Packers last week in the turnover department. A repeat dose will be required to beat the 49ers.
This is a game with a hard-nosed football team coming up against another hard-nosed football team. Seriously, they’re so alike, it’s scary. Put simply, the game plan for both teams should be something along these lines – keep it simple, run the ball so as to control the clock, attack the QB on defence, and take advantage of your opponent’s mistakes. The team that executed this plan better will win the day.
Ultimately, I think the 49ers will win through to another Super Bowl. Everyone seems to have jumped on the Giant’s bandwagon and have San Francisco somewhat flying under the radar (can you fly under the radar in a conference championship game?). I’m guilty of it myself after picking the Saints to win last week. I won’t be making the same mistake again. The 49ers are a tough out, especially at home, and will prove a bridge too far for the Giants, who I think might have played their best game last week.
My Pick – 49ers
So, for those who haven’t worked it out, yes I am picking the ‘Harbaugh-Bowl’, as much as I didn’t want to (it’s cheesy, and the story was already rammed down everyone’s throats during the Thanksgiving game). Plus, I can still get half of my original Super Bowl pick right!
Now, let’s see if I can improve that 50-50 streak….
